I came on board late in the game – hired to compile and publish the report. I learned a lot. Probably the most important thing I learned is that the conditions leading to high oil prices are not just political – though politics enters. Mainly, the conditions are geological. There is a finite supply of easy oil, and it has “peaked,” meaning that it’s going to be more and more expensive to extract and to process what oil remains in the ground.
By “expensive,” I mean bank-breakingly expensive because at this stage of the game, demand is outstripping supply. And you know how that works - as long as there is demand for an item that is hard to come by, the price can go up and up and up – until the price is so high that demand is destroyed. There can be a lot of wreckage in the wake of that process. Think about it – oil is used to turn on the lights, heat our homes, transport our food, our supplies, make our medicine, grow our food; it is used to connect us one to the other. What happens when these supplies and activities cost more and more and more? I think people will suffer. But I also think the suffering can be mitigated by conservation, efficiency, and the development of alternative sources of renewable (after all, let’s learn from this experience) energy.
I like to believe and act as though our governments are formed and function in the best interests of the people they govern. So I think it’s imperative that our local government initiate policies that help constituents prepare for the transition to a more expensive world. Peak Oil & Energy Transition, prepared for the Haines Borough, articulates those policies and makes specific suggestions. I pray that the Haines Borough Assembly takes the situation seriously and follows through. I said so Tuesday night, and here’s what I said:
Mayor Shields and Members of the Assembly:
There is nothing new in the report. Does that surprise you? It should assure you. All of the findings in the report have been carefully researched. Nothing breaks new ground. On the contrary, if you adopt any or all of the recommendations you will be following policies and procedures similar to those adopted by municipalities across the country, and in Alaska, municipalities preparing for a post carbon future – a future where petroleum based energy is simply too expensive to use in the ways we have become accustomed to using it.
I’d like to mention the concept of a “market correction.” Some people believe that high prices for energy will bring forward solutions without government action. Maybe so, but I ask you, what is the nature of the investor who makes a killing in the market? Hasn’t the successful investor studied options, assessed trends, and looked into the future? Isn’t this what positions him to invest successfully? And the investor who ignores trends? Disregards unpleasant but reliable data? Sometimes that person goes bankrupt. Don’t let that “person” be the Haines Borough.
I am convinced that high energy prices, and high transportation costs will characterize our foreseeable future. The successful municipality, like the successful investor, will be the municipality that anticipates and adjusts before the market peaks, not after. Please take action now to reduce our dependency on non-renewable energy.
I heard Dan Parrent tell Mayor Shields that a successful municipal wood heat project will require a cheerleader. There has to be a somebody or a group of somebodies who believe in the project and are willing to work hard to show others that the project is economically viable and environmentally desirable. Please look carefully at Recommendation 1 in the Task Force report. You will find that the recommendation to establish a Community Energy Sustainability Commission is none other than a recommendation to institutionalize a cheerleading squad to bring Haines into the fold of municipalities re-designing themselves to survive the coming “market correction.”
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